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THE VIDEO SHELF · survivorship bias

Derren Brown - The System (Full)

Derren Brown's TV special in which he convinces a person he has a system for predicting horse race winners, demonstrating how survivorship bias and selective outcomes can fake predictive powers.

Why HN readers recommended it

HN cites it as the classic demonstration of survivorship and confirmation bias in betting, trading and prediction claims.

This is a summary from the source dataset, not an endorsement by Hacker News or the video creator.

Video & recommendation details

Creator / channel
ScepticaTV
Topic
survivorship bias
Format
documentary
Level
general
HN recommenders in dataset
3
HN mentions in dataset
6
Recommendation years in dataset
2013–2017

These counts and years describe the included Hacker News records; they are not YouTube views or the video’s publication date.

From the original HN conversations

Excerpts from the recorded comments. Follow each source for the full comment and surrounding discussion.

  • This reminds me of Derren Brown's awesome "The System" special: [VIDEO] More info for anyone who hasn't had the pleasure of knowing who Derren Brown is: [LINK] Derren Brown is a British illusionist, mentalist, trickster, hypnotist, painter, writer, and sceptic. He is known for his …

    Fuzzwah on Hacker News · 2014-11
    In The Day I Lost a Shit-ton of Money, Part I
  • I don't know if your assessment of the study is valid (it seems a little simplistic to think that they wouldn't account for this to be honest), but what you describe is classic Survivorship Bias. Here's an entertaining video from Derren Brown that shows how …

    sgdesign on Hacker News · 2014-09
    In How to see into the future?
  • For a good example of confirmation bias watch Derren Brown's "The System" [1] where he makes a woman believe an unknown benefactor has a foolproof system for betting on horses. "Mail Order Prophet" [2] by Alfred Hitchock has a similar idea. [1] [VIDEO] ] [2] …

    sparkzilla on Hacker News · 2014-12
    In A Magician’s Best Trick: Revealing a Basic Human Bias

Summaries, classifications and recommendation records are from the HackerTube source dataset. Read about this library and its limitations.